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Analyzing Bioterror Response Logistics: The Case of Anthrax

Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02114
Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94306
Scientific Computing and Computational Mathematics, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94306
dcraft{at}partners.org
lwein{at}stanford.edu
awilkins{at}stanford.edu

To aid in understanding how best to respond to a bioterror anthrax attack, we analyze a system of differential equations that includes an atmospheric release model, a spatial array of biosensors, a dose-response model, a disease progression model, and a set of spatially distributed tandem queues for distributing antibiotics and providing hospital care. We derive approximate closed-form expressions for the number of deaths as a function of key parameters and management levers, including the size of the attack, the time at which the attack is detected via symptomatic patients, the number of days to distribute antibiotics, the efficacy (both for treatment and prevention) of antibiotics, the prophylactic antibiotic distribution strategy, the prioritization of the antibiotics queue, and the detection limit, deployment density, and delay time of biosensors.

Key Words: bioterrorism; queueing
History: Received: November 17, 2003;

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