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Long-Run Abstinence After Narcotics Abuse: What Are the Odds?

Catholic University Lauven, Naamestraat 69, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
Catholic University Lauven, Naamestraat 69, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
The Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095-1481
The Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095-1481

We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment. A flexible split-hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed. The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over 800 addicts. Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, which suggests the need for aftercare, (2) the value of preventing a teenager or young adult from initiating, and (3) the possibility of identifying high-risk groups, both in terms of age of first daily use and in terms of ethnicity.

Key Words: Hazard Modeling; Survival Analysis; Narcotics Abuse; Methadone Treatment; Public Policy

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